A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
