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China has deployed its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past outlying Japanese territory as Beijing escalates tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.